Unless there is a huge "no program specified" draw, the minimum CRS score required will probably increase in 2022.
Here is why:
So, in a summary, lots of high-scored candidates are joining the pool in 2021, but still weren't selected because they don't qualify for CEC or PNP.
As a result, the Express Entry pool is full of highly qualified candidates, which will bring the minimum score required to high levels!
However, we will only see that increase when "No Program Specified" draws are back! Because CEC and PNP draws only select candidates eligible to those programs. And the big majority of candidates on the Express Entry pool don't really qualify for them.
Let's go over the details...
My estimation is that in 2022 (or whenever "No Program Specified" draws are back), the minimum CRS score required will be around 490.
It's impossible to know for sure, but here is how I got to that number:
IRCC provides us with an up-to-date break-down of how many Express Entry candidates are within each score range:
IRCC also provides us with how many invitations (ITAs) were given on each draw:
So we can see that each draw typically invites 3000 to 5000 candidates.
And the top 5000 candidates have a score above 490.
So, if they invite 5000 candidates (as they typically do), the top candidates will be selected, and minimum score required will be around 490.
That is, of course, assuming that "No Program Specified" draws will be back by then - which is, well, an assumption!
That is totally possible. They did it back in February 2021, when they invited 27 thousand candidates for CEC, bringing the minimum score required then all the way down to 75!
If that happens again, but this time for "No Program Specified", we will see the score go down too. But not really that much! See list below.
As a rule of thumb, the more candidates they invite, the lower will be the minimum score.
How did I get to those numbers? Just see how many candidates there are on the Express Entry pool for each score range. (First chart above)