Published by Gabriel Oliveira
on June 30, 2021

5 Signs That FSW Draws Should Come Back Soon

It's been 6 months since the last "No Program Specified" draw (which includes the Federal Skilled Worker Program)!

Last FSW draw was in December, 2020

Since then, IRCC has been sending ITAs only through the Canadian Experience Class program (in red on the chart above) or Provincial Nominee Program (in yellow).

But that (hopefully) is about to change!

Here are 5 signs that FSW draws should be back soon:

  1. People with COPR can travel to Canada again
  2. People fully vaccinated don't need to quarantine or COVID-19 tests anymore
  3. Number of COVID-19 cases in Canada is drastically going down
  4. Last year (2020), when COVID-19 numbers went down, we got some FSW invitations
  5. Quality of CEC candidates being invited is going down fast

1 - People with COPR can travel to Canada again

Since June 21, 2021, If you have a COPR (Confirmation of Permanent Residence), you can travel to Canada .

COPR holders can now travel to Canada

The Confirmation of Permanent Residence (COPR) is the last step of the Permanent Residence application. It allows you to travel to Canada to do the landing (where you actually become a PR).

The fact that COPR holders can now travel to Canada again means that at least one door is finally reopen for immigrants from abroad!

The rule is still only for COPR holders, which means IRCC must already have approved your application for Permanent Residence. But is a good sign that things might be getting back to normal!

2 - People fully vaccinated don't need to quarantine or COVID-19 tests anymore

Canada has recognized the efficiency of some vaccines, and now considers safe to receive people that had both doses of those.

Starting July 5, 2021, if you are fully vaccinated, you won't need to quarantine or do COVID-19 tests once you get up here (in Canada).

This is the list of currently accepted vaccines:

3 - Number of new COVID-19 cases in Canada is going down!

Canada had 3 waves, each stronger than the other.

But now numbers are going back to mid-2020 levels, and 30% of the population is fully vaccinated!

New cases of COVID-19 in Canada

The pandemic was probably the main reason that IRCC stopped inviting FSW candidates.

Which makes total sense - with all travel restrictions in place, there was no way the country would invite people over.

But now, with the numbers going down, things should get back on track soon.

4 - Last year (2020), when COVID-19 numbers went down, we got some FSW invitations

This is another sign that IRCC is just waiting for the pandemic to give us a break before bringing FSW draws again!

When things were getting better last year. Or better said, when we thought things were getting better, we had a few invitations rounds for FSW ("No Program Specified").

Once things started to get worst again, those stopped though.

We had some FSW draws when things seemed to be ok

Now, with the scenario becoming more optimistic again, hopefully we'll see "no program specified" again!

5 - Skills of CEC candidates being invited is going down

The whole goal of these economic programs (FSW, CEC, PNP, etc.) is to bring in skilled immigrants!

But since the pandemic hit, we've been seeing mostly CEC and PNP invitations.

On the CEC side specifically, the minimum score required to be invited has been dropping considerably, and it's currently at 357 (June 24, 2021), which is pretty low.

This mean that the "quality" (that is probably not the best word) of the candidates being selected is going down.

Which makes us wonder... Which so many highly qualified candidates out there (waiting for FSW), which should Canada keep inviting no-so-qualified candidates through CEC?

Another sign that FSW should come back soon!

Minimum Scores required for each draw - CEC going down!

Disclaimer

This article is not based on IRCC strategy. It is an analysis (guess?) from the author regarding the short-term future of FSW invitation draws for Express Entry.


Comments

Festus Jul 02, 2021 20:09:41

Great post. I joined the pool on June 6 and currently have a CRS score of 481. I’m really hopeful

Gabriel (Author) Jul 06, 2021 17:10:37

Thanks! Niceee!! I'be hopeful too, that's a great score! Fingers crossed here!!

Jeff Jul 13, 2021 09:48:57

Good analysis, I really hope the fsw draw will come in next few draws, My score is 494.

Gabriel (Author) Jul 14, 2021 14:27:24

That's a great score, congrats! Yeah, fingers crossed they'll be back soon! With that score you should get an ITA pretty soon!

Simran Jul 15, 2021 06:54:14

Hello sir..My CRS is 457..I am a banker..do i need to go with PNP or with FSW..Is it worth to hope for ITA with such score..

Gabriel (Author) Jul 15, 2021 13:45:38

457 is a bit on the low side, but it's not bad at all. I'd do this: see if any PNP would work for you. If you don't find anything, aim for FSW, but try to boost that score anyway possible (English, French, Education, etc). It will take more time, but heck, it's a life project!

Marvin Jul 15, 2021 13:10:42

I feel depressed with the scores above haha. I have only 341 :(

Gabriel (Author) Jul 15, 2021 13:47:24

Lol yeah not very promising! Anyway you can boost it? English, French? Easier said than done, I know, but it is what it is... Also check out PNPs, maybe some stream fits your profile! Last resource - consider coming in as a student (super expensive/risky though)

a Jul 15, 2021 22:23:23

When do you think FSW will resume? I have a score of 475, any chance of getting an invite soon?

Gabriel (Author) Jul 19, 2021 22:07:24

Hi, yeah 475 is not a bad score, you definetly have a chance, but it will all depend on how many people they will invite, which is impossible to know! There is less than 10k people ahead of you, so again, not bad at all!

Andres Jul 25, 2021 03:18:08

I'm surprised every time I hear that this is policy is targeting international students who are already living in Canada. I have obtained my Masters degree in Feb 2021 in Canada and reside here since 2019, I am employed, have an EE profile scoring 440, and still, I don't qualify for CEC for not having accumulated 1-year of work experience. If there is FSW draw, I will be "competing" with candidates who are not not intl. students neither residing in Canada.

Gabriel (Author) Jul 27, 2021 17:03:32

Yeah, it kinda stinks I tend to agree with you. But hey, I believe you might fit the profile for some PNP stream... hopefully the province you live in has one of those. Have you checked that? If not, than, maybe try to boost your score with English/French. But again, I totally get you.. a bit frustrating

Andres Jul 25, 2021 03:24:12

Gabriel, is it possible to know how much people are ahead for a particular score for FSW? (from your previous reply). Is it also possible that ppl in EE that appear applying for the FSW are no longer available if they have simultaneously qualified under CEC? Thanks!

Gabriel (Author) Jul 27, 2021 17:05:07

Hm.. so all we can see is how many people are within each score range. No way to tell if it's FSW, CEC, or what... The numbers are for EE as a whole. Also not possible to see which ones qualify for both. We are kind of flying blind here... Anyway this is where you can see some data: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/submit-profile/rounds-invitations.html (the table on the bottom of the page)

Narinder Aug 10, 2021 06:15:05

What are the hopes for 495 score? The wait is really getting long.

Gabriel (Author) Aug 16, 2021 16:22:15

Yeah, this article is from June!! I was really expecting them (FSW) to be back by now! Anyway, with a score of 495 you should definitely get an ITA once they come back! Less than 5k people ahead of you! Congrats on the great score :)

Taotao Aug 12, 2021 16:12:18

Will Canada open the boards to international traveller in September 7? Will Canada resume FSW draw after September 7?

Gabriel (Author) Aug 16, 2021 16:23:27

That's the million dollar question right there (the second one)! I sure hope so, but have no idea TBH. About the boarders open to international travellers, they are open, just withh a bunch of restrictions (quarantine, vaccination history, etc). But I really don't know much details about it, sorry.

Wojtek Aug 19, 2021 09:08:28

It is very annoying that IRCC is dead silence about FSW. Everyone are avoiding this like fire. They should calm down people a bit and just mention when they are planning to resume the draws. I cannot understand why they are not doing it. I am hopping that they will resume the draws in the next few weeks. They have mentioned couple of time till travel restrictions are in place there will not be any draws, so when they will open up border on 7th of September I wonder what will be the next excuse :(

Gabriel (Author) Aug 20, 2021 21:56:07

Totally agree with you! To be honest, I'd rather them saying "FSW is dead forever" than this whole silence thing. That way at least people would be able to plan themselves accordingly. The way it is now is pretty much a gambling. And what makes it worst, gambling with peoples futures, savings, etc. Really sad, IRCC.

Wojtek Aug 23, 2021 08:18:18

Exactly Gabriel. I mean, looking at all the trends and needs etc. I highly doubt that they will end FSW, however, I really cannot understand why they are avoiding this topic as fire. It is just crazy. They could just openely say it what they are planning or at least officially said it that listen, for now FSW is stopped because of this and this reason. I wonder what is making soo difficult to them to do that.

Gabriel (Author) Aug 24, 2021 22:20:05

Yeah, and considering that they have the pandemic to blame, and they are not even using that card, makes us all wonder what the heck is going on.

Alex Aug 22, 2021 13:38:16

Hey Gabriel, My CRS is 429, NOC 1111... I think FSW in dream here with my CRS. Can you please suggest which PNP program I should watch for with my NOC ? Also, I got only bachelors, so I would appreciate if you could advise me some diplomas or universities where I can enroll to boost my scores... I have been searching a lot but could not find any 6 month diploma equivalent to bachelors. :) Looking forward to your response

Gabriel (Author) Aug 24, 2021 22:17:45

hi Alex, I got in with 427 hahahha so really not 100% impossible. But those were different times, I give you that :) So, I'm not sure about courses, I'm really a bit out of that loop. Same goes for PNP streams. But if I may throw in a bit of advice: lots of people look at their current score and assume they need to find a path that works with that score. Thing is the most solid strategy is always to increase your score (English, French, whatever is closer to you). The better the score is, more doors (streams, programs, etc) will open. So don't take your score as something you can't change and you need to make it work as is. Try to improve it! That said, again, I really don't know from the top of my head any PNP or course that would work for you. I'd say take some hours to go over the provinces websites or, if you don't have the time/patience to do it, maybe consider hiring a consultant. They will definitely look at your profile and highlight the best options out there for you! Makes sense?

Zhang Sep 02, 2021 01:36:10

While I understand why they halted FSW, but there are many candidates in the FSW pool who are also in Canada right now, like myself. Student experience gained in Canada sucks because it will not make you qualify for CEC, and the experience does not count towards CRS.

Gabriel (Author) Sep 14, 2021 19:23:15

I know exactly what you mean... the trick is to try to get the 1 year exp required for CEC ASAP, and in the meanwhile, maybe try to look for a PNP where your studies might be valuable!

Supreme Leader Sep 13, 2021 23:04:46

I definitely think "quality" in your article is a very poorly chosen word. Those CEC candidates have shown that they can gain and hold onto their employment in Canada throughout the pandemic. I'd argue that's quite incredible resilience among those candidates. I'm a low-CRS-score CEC applicant yet I have the best English-speaking ability and real-world workplace adaptability in my team and some my colleagues who had 500+ CRS scores (with mediocre English) or Canadian citizens lost their jobs because they just couldn't perform.

Gabriel (Author) Sep 14, 2021 19:25:40

Yeah, I tend to agree that "quality" is not the best word! I meant the score being lower than some FSW candidates. Canadian experience (which includes being exposed to higher level of English I suppose) is valued by IRCC, therefore CEC are getting the due value, specially during the pandemic. I should definetlye have expressed myself better there, sorry about that.

Nero Sep 16, 2021 21:14:28

I think if the FSW should return, the cut off score would be really high to filter out the number of people in the pool, because there are a lot of people waiting. It would probably go down with time. Its just very frustrating that they are taking this much time. People in the pool are increasing by the day, and there is going to be a lot of people waiting. I'm tired of this whole shit, its pissing me off. what are you thoughts?

Gabriel (Author) Sep 21, 2021 18:38:44

Man, I agree 100% with EVERYTHING you said! Minimum score should start high, and then drop (unless there's a huge draw right out of the bat!). About the time they are taking, I would honestly prefer for them to come out and say "you know what guys? There will be no more FSW" than this crazy silence. At least like that people would be able to plan themselves accordingly. Now everybody is just shooting in the dark!

Wojtek Oct 11, 2021 13:20:48

We have seen all of these changes and announcements but nothing has changed to FSW ?? there was no draw and it is hard to follow any news, they are not speaking about FSW, there is no communication, nothing

Gabriel (Author) Oct 25, 2021 14:22:11

Yeah, I wish they would tell us something. Even if is to say that FSW is dead - at least we'd be able to plan ourselves accordingly...

Kalpesh Oct 23, 2021 14:32:47

Hello Gabriel, I have ECA with master equivalency and 4 years of work experience. The only lacking is 8777 in IELTS ??. After that my CRS score would be about 470. I'm planning to start preparation for 8777. Should I go ahead for it because there has been no FSW draw since a long time? Some people in your comment section claim that Canada going to shutdown FSW, is it true? Your opinions would be a great help for me.

Gabriel (Author) Oct 25, 2021 14:23:40

Hi Kalpesh, It's impossible to say if they will close FSW or not. I personally think they won't! But it's just a guess... About the IELTS, IMO, you will ALWAYS use a good IELTS/English skills, no matter which immigration path you are taking. So I'd definetly work on it. And if/when FSW is back, you'll be ready for it!

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