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Published by Gabriel Oliveira on September 23, 2021

Will The CRS Score Go Down in 2022?

Unless there is a huge "no program specified" draw, the minimum CRS score required will probably increase in 2022.

Here is why:

  • No FSW draws in 2021 (at least so far), which only caused the number of candidates on the Express Entry pool to grow.
  • Only CEC and PNP draws in 2021, which left a lot of FSW candidates with high scores still on the Pool.
  • IELTS centers reopening around the world, which caused EE pool to grow even more.

So, in a summary, lots of high-scored candidates are joining the pool in 2021, but still weren't selected because they don't qualify for CEC or PNP.

As a result, the Express Entry pool is full of highly qualified candidates, which will bring the minimum score required to high levels!

However, we will only see that increase when "No Program Specified" draws are back! Because CEC and PNP draws only select candidates eligible to those programs. And the big majority of candidates on the Express Entry pool don't really qualify for them.

Let's go over the details...

What will be the CRS score required for Express Entry in 2022?

My estimation is that in 2022 (or whenever "No Program Specified" draws are back), the minimum CRS score required will be around 490.

It's impossible to know for sure, but here is how I got to that number:

IRCC provides us with an up-to-date break-down of how many Express Entry candidates are within each score range:

IRCC also provides us with how many invitations (ITAs) were given on each draw:

So we can see that each draw typically invites 3000 to 5000 candidates.

And the top 5000 candidates have a score above 490.

So, if they invite 5000 candidates (as they typically do), the top candidates will be selected, and minimum score required will be around 490.

That is, of course, assuming that "No Program Specified" draws will be back by then - which is, well, an assumption!

What if they invite A LOT of people?

That is totally possible. They did it back in February 2021, when they invited 27 thousand candidates for CEC, bringing the minimum score required then all the way down to 75!

If that happens again, but this time for "No Program Specified", we will see the score go down too. But not really that much! See list below.

As a rule of thumb, the more candidates they invite, the lower will be the minimum score.

  • If they invite 5000 candidates, minimum score will be around 490.
  • If they invite 10000 candidates, minimum score will be around 480.
  • If they invite 20000 candidates, minimum score will be around 470.
  • If they invite 20000 candidates, minimum score will be around 470.
  • If they invite 30000 candidates, minimum score will be around 460.

How did I get to those numbers? Just see how many candidates there are on the Express Entry pool for each score range. (First chart above)

Disclaimer: This article assumes that FSW draws ("No Program Specified) will return until 2022! If "No Program Specified" draws don't return, and we keep getting only CEC and PNP draws, the minimum score requires should drop, because there are only so many CEC/PNP candidates on the pool.

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Comments

Chawan (Guest-279877) 2021-10-21T16:35:26Z

I have 444 score is that point is good ? Iam from Iraq is that make different between countries? I haven’t account in bank I haven’t money just I have house can I prove that I have house after I win express entry I will sell that is that possible?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-10-25T14:44:36Z

Hi Chawan, 444 is really not a killer score... specially for FSW. And as far as I know, there is no restriction in place for Iraq citizens. BTW, just the other day I met a super nice lady that came here with her family from Iraq. The house as proof of funds won't work... It needs to be money in the bank :(
 

Chawan (Guest-279877) 2021-10-21T16:35:27Z

I have 444 score is that point is good ? Iam from Iraq is that make different between countries? I haven’t account in bank I haven’t money just I have house can I prove that I have house after I win express entry I will sell that is that possible?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-03T04:23:27Z

Hi Chawan. 444 is not a killer score, but is not bad either. It will all depend on how many people they will invite. There are currently more than 30k people ahead of you, so that gives you an idea. About the $, you really need it, if you are aiming for FSW... They won't accept the house as proof of funds.
 

Gina (Guest-284722) 2021-10-26T04:13:37Z

Is it confirmed that no program specified draws will be back in 2022? When is IRCC confirming this information?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-03T04:24:15Z

Hi Gina. Man, I wish I knew... no one knows what they are gonna do. I think (hope?) it will be back, but that's just a guess :\
 

Gyna (Guest-285074) 2021-10-26T10:41:59Z

Hi, what is a good score to apply for FSW?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-03T04:24:40Z

Hi, I'd say 490 is a good one
 

Minesh (Guest-287917) 2021-10-28T19:37:50Z

I am standing with 449 under cec profile. Is it good score?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-03T04:26:02Z

Hi Minesh. It's good for CEC! In August we had a CEC draw asking only for 403. You'd be in if you had a profile back then
 

Ramit (Guest-288309) 2021-10-30T12:01:34Z

Hello sir what are chances for 468 crs score will that be enough to get through the draw if fsw draw resume and frequently done in starting of Jan 2022

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-03T04:26:37Z

Hi! 468 is a good score, but still around 20k people ahead of you. It will all depend on how many people they invite.
 

Patrick (Guest-294052) 2021-11-03T08:01:49Z

Your prediction appears to make sense to me for their first draw(s), but isn‘t it realistic that they will go down later in 2022? CEC &PNP pools should be almost empty, so I hope they‘ll draw a lot of FSW to meet their targets next year. Or do I overlook something?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-15T05:45:15Z

Yeah your logic makes total sense to me! It will all come down to how many people they invite, versus how many new candidates join the pool!
 

Patrick (Guest-294052) 2021-11-03T08:02:03Z

Your prediction appears to make sense to me for their first draw(s), but isn‘t it realistic that they will go down later in 2022? CEC &PNP pools should be almost empty, so I hope they‘ll draw a lot of FSW to meet their targets next year. Or do I overlook something?

Priyanka (Guest-294873) 2021-11-04T02:16:32Z

There has not been any cec draw since Sep 14. Google says IRCC has met the target for the year. Does that mean there wont be any more draw until 2022? I have submitted my profile around Sep 16. Will I have to create a new one after three months?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-15T05:47:05Z

No, your profile is good for 1 year :) Are you eligible for CEC? Hopefully things will be back to normal soon - they can't keep up only with PNP for too long! Even if they met 2021 targets, 2022 is right around the corner.
 

Mohammed Salman Naveed (Guest-295637) 2021-11-04T22:02:49Z

Hello. Thanks for keeping us updated with valuable information. I have a CRS of 470 after losing 5 points for age in October last week. My question is, if "No program specified" draws resume in January 2022 and IRCC issue 5000 ITA's every fortnight, can I expect an ITA by March or April 2022? My CRS will remain 470 till October 2022 after which I'll lose 5 points again. Does it make sense if I wait for FSW draws to resume? As I don't have the budget to go with study visa route. Please suggest Thank you.

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-15T05:48:56Z

There around 25 thousand candidates with score > 470, so it will all depend on how many people they invite... I'd say you have a chance yeah. But if you should wait or not - I personally would wait, but trying to boost the score a bit in the meanwhile. But it's very personal
 

Jasjot kaur (Guest-295734) 2021-11-05T00:55:26Z

I applied in CEC pool on 4.11.2021.M y points considered 507. when next draw will be.May be in 2021.I hope may be selected with 507 points.

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-15T05:49:35Z

wow 507 is a great score, congrats! No idea when next FSW draw will be though... nobody knows. But again, great score!
 

Jasjot kaur (Guest-295734) 2021-11-05T00:58:00Z

Sorry,draw will be in January 2022 or before.I think good points is 507.

Raj Grewal (Guest-299660) 2021-11-07T19:18:29Z

Hey I’ve read that we get extra 600 points if we have pnp. I live in Saskatchewan and I have sinp so am I eligible for those points.

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-15T05:50:03Z

Nice! Yeah, if you get a nomination, you are in!
 

Harman (Guest-308459) 2021-11-15T01:14:25Z

When fsw express entry draw next

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-15T05:50:14Z

No idea :\ nobody knows!
 

ashy (Guest-308808) 2021-11-15T08:49:19Z

Hey , my CRS is 451. any scope?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-22T05:34:39Z

Hi Ashy, 451 used to be a good score. But lately, not so much... There are around 47k people ahead of you, so we'd need a good amount of draws to get to you :( Still not bad, but if possible, try to increase it.
 

kkashol (Guest-308871) 2021-11-15T10:24:02Z

please i have a personal question about PNP .. i have a profile with SINP , can also open another profile with other province .. like New Brunswick and others

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-22T05:35:56Z

Hi, you can, but you'd be "lying" on the "demonstrate interest into moving to the province" criteria (if that province has that criteria). I recommend you see the one you have more chances, and go only with that one.
 

kkashol (Guest-308871) 2021-11-15T10:25:47Z

i have a CRS score of 449 .. i know i don't stand much chance .. but can i open more profile with PNP from different states to boost my chance of getting nominated for PNP program ...

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-22T05:36:17Z

Hi, no, you can only have one EE profile :\
 

Himani (Guest-310185) 2021-11-16T13:34:17Z

Hi, My score is 460… after reading your responses I think my chances are bleak for invitation unless they do frequent draws… It’ll be great if you can guide me how can I apply for PNP? Sorry new to this. Thanks in advance :)

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-22T05:37:17Z

Hi, it's confusing at first, right? But for PNP, there are no shortcuts - you must go into eache provice website, one by one, and see the ones that might work for you. Them on the same website you'll find instructions on how to apply.
 

Deepika 2021-11-17T04:39:56Z

Hi, my score is 490 and we submitted the express entry application and entered the pool just yesterday. (16 Nov 2021). Do you think I should wait for FSW draw or try the PNP option? My IELTS is valid till Oct 2023 at this point.

Tammie (Guest-312951) 2021-11-19T01:41:19Z

I would like to know the answer as well, my score is 493 and I will lose 5 points in January when I turn 30. :(
 

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-22T05:38:41Z

Those are both great scores! I personally would wait on FSW, and if possible, still apply for PNP, if eligible - one thing doesn't exclude the other. Also try to compensate the age thing through some other points criteria (I know - easier said than done, right?)
 

Hem Bhatta (Guest-312422) 2021-11-18T14:41:51Z

Hi, I am Hem Bhatta, from Nepal. I am here in Sydney Australia since past 3 years and have completed masters in IT. Currently I am applying for Canadian express entry. I am 37 years old. While calculating Crs, it accounts only around 350. Is there any way to get PR for canada?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-22T05:39:20Z

350 is definitely too low for FSW. I'd consider some PNP and also see if you can increase that score somehow
 

Kalps (Guest-312701) 2021-11-18T19:50:32Z

Hello Sir, My CRS is 451, met minimum criterias for CEC and FSW. Is it good to wait for CEC or need to reappear for IELTS to improve score?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-22T05:40:40Z

If your IELTS is about to expire, I'd definetly do another one yes. And then wait for CEC - it should happen another one at some point... it's hard to tell with 100% certainty though - things have been a bit crazy lately right..
 

Aneesh (Guest-315248) 2021-11-21T05:40:02Z

My brother in alberta if i apply for pnp any chance to get nomination ??

Gabriel (Author) 2021-11-22T05:41:08Z

It will depend on your profile. Check AINP website for details on the selection criteria
 

Venu Kumar (Guest-316601) 2021-11-22T09:39:38Z

Hello My CRS score is 387 with 3+ years of foreign experience in IT. Will I be eligible for FSW or express entry. If I am eligible for any PNP , please suggest me Thanks in advance

Gabriel (Author) 2021-12-06T04:56:40Z

Hi, sorry for the delay. You might be eligible for FSW, yes. But it will depend on other factors too. 387 is a really low score though, so chances of ITA by FSW are almost zero. For PNPs, I suggest you go on the provinces websites, one by one. I know it's super boring, but that's what I believe to be the right way of doing it.
 

Hayden Ch (Guest-320709) 2021-11-25T17:19:52Z

Hello, My CRS is 485 under CEC submitted on Sep 15, 2021. Do you think if I have a chance for EE? I recently got ITA from PNP (non EE) and I don't know what to do. Should I wait for 1 more month hoping EE in Jan 2022 or go with PNP instead? Thanks

Gabriel (Author) 2021-12-06T04:57:28Z

Hi, sorry for the delay! I'd definetly go for the PNP! Why would you not go for it, considering you have an ITA? :)
 

Anu (Guest-327542) 2021-12-01T20:36:45Z

Hi, my cec score 454. My work permit is expiring soon. Do you think I have a chance for ITA in coming 2022 draw mostly in Jan or feb?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-12-06T04:58:37Z

Hi, 454 is an "ok" score... There's more than 40k people in front of you, so you'd need a few big draws to get in :(
 

Pretty (Guest-331948) 2021-12-05T17:36:28Z

Hi am 37 years of age with 3+years in HR field. I have a a score of 360. What are my chances

Gabriel (Author) 2021-12-06T04:59:11Z

Hi, for FSW specifically, 360 is really not a good score :(. Maybe check if some PNPs might work for you?
 

S (Guest-334516) 2021-12-07T19:14:30Z

Hello, Do you think I would have a chance to get selected for FSW next year with a score of 484? I know it will likely start at around 490, but I am assuming it should go down for the next draw or two into the 480s.. Thanks for this great article.

Gabriel (Author) 2021-12-26T04:03:36Z

Hi, sorry for the delay. Yeah, good chances of ITa for 484! "only" around 13k candidates ahead of you, nothing that a few draws can't solve. Question is when will FSW draws resume...
 

Bilal (Guest-347438) 2021-12-20T09:59:47Z

Hi I have a CRS score of 431 so is it good so that I could get a permanent resident for canada?

Gabriel (Author) 2021-12-26T04:04:02Z

Hi, unfortunately 431 is not so good currently... at least not for FSW.
 

PF (Guest-348110) 2021-12-21T17:37:25Z

Hi! I have 497 and will lose 5 points in early January.. I'm waiting for a NOI from Ontario (I updated and became elegible yesterday). First question is usually how long it takes to get a NOI from a Province and the second question is where can I find how many profiles are ahead of mine (in case a No Specific Program draw comes).. Thanks!

Gabriel (Author) 2021-12-26T04:05:01Z

Hey congrats on the great score! First question, I'm not sure... maybe try to find it on OINP website. Second question, check this page: https://www.canadastepbystep.com/articles/express-entry-what-are-my-chances
 

Suga (Guest-354463) 2021-12-27T07:26:28Z

Hi! My cec score is 420 can I get a chance of pr in 2022 draw?

Jag (Guest-354996) 2021-12-27T19:47:24Z

My score is 423 same Question
 

Jag (Guest-354996) 2021-12-27T19:47:54Z

Hi my Cec score is 423 can i get a chance of PR in 2022 Draw.

Amit (Guest-354546) 2021-12-30T14:14:22Z

Hi..my age is 33 and my CRS score is 437..what are the chances for PNP and Express entry in 2022?

Tarek (Guest-358022) 2021-12-30T19:49:29Z

Hello and thanks for the wonderful efforts you put in your site. I have a score of 473 and i work in Dubai. I'll lose good 6 points next May due to Age. Do you think i should apply to a Canadian university to be able to go there? :(

Fadi (Guest-363806) 2022-01-05T03:43:27Z

Hi! My CRS score is 428 with 1-year Canadian work experience. I am waiting for the CEC draw but do you think that I should wait with that score or should I apply for PNP?

Prashant (Guest-364951) 2022-01-05T20:30:53Z

Hi, My score is 442 and I am already working in Canada and will complete one year of work experience in May-2022. is it good score?

Abdul (Guest-362434) 2022-01-05T23:08:40Z

How are the chances for one with 483 points to get a CEC invitation? I collected as much points as I can. PNP is a valid option to me, but I understand that the processing time would be much longer with this program..

Dhruv (Guest-366194) 2022-01-06T19:10:42Z

Hey, How about 457 under CEC.? work permit is valid till Dec 2023.

Rajkumar (Guest-378540) 2022-01-18T14:28:32Z

Is there anywhere we can know how many CEC candidates are there for each score range

Joao (Guest-380435) 2022-01-20T04:32:35Z

What about 406 points, waiting for CEC?

Pravs2022 (Guest-381563) 2022-01-21T03:10:32Z

Hi, I have a CRS score of 495…with one year Canada experience in June 2022. Do you think this score is enough or I should take one more IELTS.

Rohit Gupta (Guest-382125) 2022-01-21T10:57:01Z

Hi, I have a score of 450 and I know it's a low score. But I am really looking forward for a PNP nomination. It's been 4 months since I ave created an Express Entry profile but haven't received any nominations. I was also looking to apply for PNP directly from the province's websites but they require a current job offer in the province before applying. I am from India and it's very difficult to get an offer from here. I am not sure how long should I wait. Also, is there an option to apply to a province with IT jobs where I don't require a job offer beforehand.? Thank you so much.

Mugdha (Guest-388018) 2022-01-26T16:25:58Z

Hi, my crs score is 478 and I have submitted my application in the month of June 2021. Should I wait for the fsw draws to presume or opt for study permit ?

Tashi (Guest-406485) 2022-02-15T05:14:57Z

My crs is 480. Should I wait for fsw or try for another option?

Roy (Guest-407852) 2022-02-16T08:29:19Z

Hello I plant to apply under CEC next year in 2023. I calculate my score to be 465. What do you think will be the chances of getting invited? Thank you so much for your information and the patience with which you answer our queries.

Davinder Singh (Guest-410368) 2022-02-18T12:12:14Z

Hello brother..my score is 469...kindly suggest what to do?...should i wait patiently or should i apply for study visa?

John (Guest-420115) 2022-09-10T02:00:25Z

Hi, I have a CRS score of 457. And my work belongs to the NOC 4166 which doesnt seem to qualify any PNP. Is there any way I can improve my score to 5xx now that the cut off is already 516?

Bini (Guest-431310) 2022-09-26T08:51:53Z

Hi, I have a score of 476. Currently the FSW draws are regular. The latest one was on 15th Sept 2022 with a minimum score of 511 and 3250 candidates were invited. What are the chances of the scores falling below 480 and what is a probable timeline for this? Do I stand a chance of getting an ITA? Please let me know your thoughts. Thank you!

Express Entry Totals

215 Draws
549,177 ITAs
196,685 Profiles

More data...

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